John Wheeler: Despite the general global warming, this could be another cold winter
The latest long-lead forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center calls for a colder than average winter.
FARGO — The average temperature of the lower atmosphere around the world is about two to seven degrees Fahrenheit warmer than 50 years ago. The high Arctic has warmed 7-8 degrees while the tropics have warmed only very little. These are averages, and the regular variability of weather continues over these averages. It still gets very cold in the Arctic in Winter, and when Arctic air is directed our way in winter, it still gets very cold here.
The latest long-lead forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center calls for a 40-50% chance of a colder than average winter, with 25-30% chances the winter will average out either near or warmer than average. The forecast is based on present regional weather anomalies and the anticipated third consecutive La Nina pattern in the Pacific Ocean, all of which suggest we may be in for somewhat persistent flow of Arctic air into our region of the hemisphere starting some time in November or December and continuing through the spring.