Jimmie Johnson is king of the mountain until another driver knocks him off--that's the logic that has made Johnson Sporting News' pick to repeat as NASCAR Sprint Cup champion for the fifth straight season.
Sporting News ranked the top 40 drivers in the series as they begin the 2010 season. For our top 12--the drivers we predict will qualify for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup--we asked prominent figures in racing to answer a question about each.
Three-time Cup champion and Fox broadcaster Darrell Waltrip also provided insights into the prospects of each of the top 12.
For drivers 13-40, we offer reasons for optimism (why there's hope) and challenges they must overcome (time to mope).
Here, then, is the Sporting News' top 40:
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1. Jimmie Johnson, No. 48 Chevrolet
Is Johnson's vanilla dominance bad for the sport?
Eddie Gossage, president of Texas Motor Speedway: No. Jimmie hasn't connected with the fans to the extent you would expect a four-time champ to do. But he's got a ton of fans. There are more popular drivers out there but only a few. It's a crying shame. This is excellence going on. We should be saluting that like we do the Patriots in the NFL or the Yankees or the Celtics or whoever when they get on a big run. That's the fun thing, when your team beats the other team. I don't know why that hasn't registered with Jimmie.
Where he'll win: Atlanta, Charlotte, Dover, Indianapolis, Martinsville, Phoenix, Richmond.
Where he'll struggle: Bristol, Homestead, Infineon, Watkins Glen.
Why there's hope: Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus are NASCAR's most formidable pairing. Owner Rick Hendrick continues to provide the best equipment on the racetrack.
Time to mope: At some point, the law of averages has to catch up with Johnson, who has never finished worse than fifth in eight Cup seasons. Doesn't it?
Darrell Waltrip says: "Nobody has proven to me that they have what it takes to beat these guys. Right now, he's unstoppable. He could win seven, eight, 10 championships in a row, as long as everything stays as is."
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2. Carl Edwards, No. 99 Ford
Does Edwards need to change his strategy to beat Jimmie Johnson?
Geoff Smith, Roush Fenway Racing president: I think it's just simply getting our cars to turn better in the corner. It's a small thing. Carl had three or four wins that he didn't get last year that he was flipped out of. It made his year look worse than it actually was. It's nothing about Carl. It was about our cars. I think the competition is going to be ferocious. These cars are very close. We're talking about nuances of separation here. These nuance differences among teams are going to shrink up again, and you'll see driver talent differences and driver judgment differences be even more critical than they have been.
Where he's better than Jimmie Johnson: Bristol, Texas, Homestead, Michigan, Pocono.
Where he'll struggle: Darlington, Daytona, Martinsville, Phoenix, Infineon.
Why there's hope: The Roush Fenway cars had plenty of power last year, and the technical alliance with Richard Petty Motorsports should help all the Roush Fenway drivers with the handling of their cars.
Time to mope: With no opportunity to test at NASCAR tracks during the offseason, Edwards and his teammates will start the season at a disadvantage to the Hendrick juggernaut.
Darrell Waltrip says: "He's married now, and he'll be having a child sometime soon, so he just needs to focus hard on being the best racecar driver he can be."
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3. Tony Stewart, No. 14 Chevrolet
Stewart's performance tailed off after a strong regular season. Is that a product of how hard it is both to own a team and drive?
Ryan Newman, Stewart's teammate: I don't think any demands caught up with Tony. I think he just didn't have the last 10 races as good as the first 26 from a performance standpoint. I think he took a lot of criticism because of his position, but I think it had nothing to do with it. I honestly 100 percent believe that.
Where he's better than Jimmie Johnson: Daytona, Homestead, Pocono, Infineon, Watkins Glen.
Darrell Waltrip says: Darlington, California, Las Vegas.
Why there's hope: Stewart is one of NASCAR's most talented drivers, and engine and chassis support from Hendrick Motorsports provides the ideal complement to his abilities.
Time to mope: With four wins and 23 top 10s as a first-year owner-driver, Stewart set a standard that will be hard to match.
Darrell Waltrip says: "You really get excited when it's something new and different, (so) I think that's going to be (his) challenge: Can he stay energized, can he keep his people energized when the new wears off of this deal?"
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4. Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Toyota
Is Hamlin the driver most likely to knock Jimmie Johnson off his throne?
Cale Yarborough, three-time Cup champion: He could very well be. Denny has a lot of talent, and he has good equipment. He's got to be more consistent--he's got to do it every week to be able to win the championship. There are a lot of guys with a lot of talent who can't win a championship because they're not consistent enough--but I think he can do it. He's got a good head on his shoulders. He's still a little bit rough around the edges, but he's got the makings.
Where he's better than Jimmie Johnson: Homestead, Pocono, Watkins Glen.
Where he'll struggle: Atlanta, Charlotte, Daytona, Talladega.
Why there's hope: During the 2009 Chase, Hamlin had the speed to match Johnson on a consistent basis. He beat Johnson in a head-to-head battle at Martinsville.
Time to mope: You never know when Hamlin--or his equipment--will self-destruct. A senseless wreck at California and two subsequent engine failures derailed an otherwise spectacular run in the Chase.
Darrell Waltrip says: "Their highs are not overcoming their lows, and I think that's what they have to work on. When their car is good, they've got to really capitalize, but they have to minimize when their car is bad, and I don't think they've been able to do that."
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5. Juan Pablo Montoya, No. 42 Chevrolet
Is Montoya's equipment good enough to carry him to a championship?
Tim Brewer, ESPN analyst and former Cup crew chief: I think he's got the equipment to run as well as he possibly could--if he didn't have to run against Jimmie Johnson. Jimmie, in my opinion, always takes his stuff to another level, especially with Chad Knaus. When the NASCAR people take the cars and chassis-dyno them, Earnhardt-Childress (which supplies Montoya's power) always has some pretty good engines. He's got a great chance. He had a great run in 2009, but I think it's going to be very difficult for anybody, with whatever equipment, to beat Jimmie Johnson.
Where he's better than Jimmie Johnson: Infineon, Watkins Glen.
Where he'll struggle: Darlington, Homestead, Las Vegas.
Why there's hope: Montoya's car control is second to none, and he's a quick study. He qualified for the Chase in his third year in the Cup Series.
Time to mope: Earnhardt Ganassi Racing is a relatively small two-car operation, bucking the conventional wisdom that there's strength in numbers.
Darrell Waltrip says: "Juan is a real emotional guy, and he'd rather pay somebody back for something that happened on the racetrack than finish a race. That's going to keep him from winning a championship."
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6. Kyle Busch, No. 18 Toyota
True or False? Kyle Busch is the most talented driver in the Cup garage.
David Pearson, three-time Cup champion and winner of 105 Cup races: Most talented? I wouldn't say he's the most talented, but I'll tell you what--I'd have to say he drives harder than anyone in that garage. He tries hard, no doubt about it. He runs hard all the time. That boy's tough. He drives the thing, and it doesn't make any difference how loose it gets, or he can slam sideways and keep right on going. He doesn't ever give up. I know one thing: I'll bet Rick Hendrick has wished a thousand times that he never got rid of him.
Where he's better than Jimmie Johnson: Bristol, Daytona, Infineon, Watkins Glen.
Where he'll struggle: Homestead, Indianapolis, Kansas.
Why there's hope: Busch can call on an enormous reservoir of talent. In the past two seasons, he has 41 wins in NASCAR's top three touring divisions.
Time to mope: Those who contend that Busch has too many distractions outside the Cup Series will have more ammunition this year, as he launches his own Camping World Truck Series team.
Darrell Waltrip says: "He's got to realize that you can't win every race. He's got to realize that you've got to finish every race, and, so far, it's checkers or wreckers for him."
7. Jeff Gordon, No. 24 Chevrolet
If you were to change one thing to make Gordon more competitive, what would it be?
Rusty Wallace, 1989 Cup champion and winner of 55 Cup races: My one thing has always been the same thing, and I think this infuriates Jeff when I say it: He still has to be more focused on the chassis of the car. He will laugh at me and say, "Oh, you were always too focused. If you would have just let those other guys do some work, you would have run better." I'm like, "I disagree." Every driver has to be really focused and really involved in the setup of the car--the shocks, the springs selection, everything--instead of relying on your engineers and crew chief to deal with all of that. I think Jeff can do that. I already know you are going to see a better Jeff Gordon next year.
Where he's better than Jimmie Johnson: Bristol, Darlington, Daytona, Pocono, Infineon, Talladega, Watkins Glen.
Where he'll struggle: Homestead, Phoenix, Texas.
Why there's hope: Gordon remains one of the most consistent, top-level talents in NASCAR, and he's determined to improve the quality of his communication with crew chief Steve Letarte.
Time to mope: In order to win a fifth championship, Gordon will have to beat Johnson, his teammate and protege. Gordon hasn't won a title since Johnson joined Hendrick Motorsports.
Darrell Waltrip says: "The younger drivers today run qualifying laps every lap. That's why they win and Jeff runs second or third. I think that Jeff is just not as aggressive as he used to be."
8. Mark Martin, No. 5 Chevrolet
How long can Martin keep going?
Harry Gant, winner of 18 Cup races, including eight after turning 50: As long as he wants to. That's what he's done since he's been little, so that's what he will keep on doing. Cars are easier to drive now. They say they are harder to drive, but it's much different than what we did. We were inhaling so much carbon monoxide, when we came out of the car our uniforms were black. Plus, they've cut a lot of the races back to 400 miles, like Dover and those places that were really tough. I wouldn't even think about it being a problem. When he's 60, 65, he can still do it.
Where he's better than Jimmie Johnson: Bristol, Las Vegas, Michigan, Watkins Glen.
Where he'll struggle: Daytona, Las Vegas, Talladega.
Why there's hope: After finishing second in the 2009 Cup standings, Martin and crew chief Alan Gustafson can build on their first season together.
Time to mope: Martin turned 51 last month. Only two drivers--Gant and Morgan Shepherd--have gone to victory lane in Cup races at that age or older.
Darrell Waltrip says: "Mark is committed. The whole thing is: How much has he got left? Can he go another year like he did last year, or was that it?"
9. Matt Kenseth, No. 17 Ford
Will missing the Chase for the first time light a fire under the low-key Kenseth?
Pat Tryson, crew chief for Martin Truex Jr.: Probably. I think the whole Roush organization will come back a lot stronger than they were last year. Any time you miss something that you are used to making, you come back determined to get back where you were. I think Matt is low-key as far as dealing with the media and at the racetrack. But I think when it comes to making sure stuff gets done, he is pretty involved making sure that things are going on the way they are supposed to. He knows racecars really well, and he's one of the driving forces behind their success.
Where he's better than Jimmie Johnson: Bristol, Las Vegas, Michigan.
Where he'll struggle: Kansas, Martinsville, Pocono, Infineon, Watkins Glen.
Why there's hope: An alliance with Richard Petty Motorsports should help with the handling problems that plagued all the Roush Fenway teams last year.
Time to mope: As intensely competitive as the race to qualify for the Chase has become, Kenseth's lackluster performances on the road courses (no top fives in 20 combined starts at Infineon and Watkins Glen) may be enough to keep him out.
Darrell Waltrip says: "Matt's not the kind of guy that's going to drive a car any harder than the car wants to go. That's why he always gets good finishes, and if the car is really good, he'll win a race."
10. Jeff Burton, No. 31 Chevrolet
What does crew chief Todd Berrier give Burton that others can't?
Richard Childress, owner of Burton's No. 31 Chevrolet: Todd is an aggressive, hard-working crew chief. He's really smart, and I think they just kind of jelled right off. I felt that if they ever got together, they would be a very strong pairing. Now that they're together, I think we've got some really good things coming this year. We were kind of watching to see what happened with the Jack Daniels-Casey (Mears) deal, and once it didn't go through, Todd (who was Mears' crew chief) was our No. 1 choice. It's going to be successful, and it's going to be a strong team.
Where he's better than Jimmie Johnson: Las Vegas, Texas.
Where he'll struggle: Atlanta, Daytona, California, Indianapolis, Martinsville, Watkins Glen.
Why there's hope: The late-season pairing of Burton and Berrier produced runner-up finishes in the final two Cup races.
Time to mope: Burton typically falls behind early in the season. The venues for the first two races--Daytona and California--are two of his worst tracks.
Darrell Waltrip says: "Burton has two problems: One, he's going to be another year older (43 in June); two, he can't qualify. That's his Achilles' heel. If he can improve his qualifying, he can improve his performance and his chances of winning."
10. Jeff Burton, No. 31 Chevrolet
What does crew chief Todd Berrier give Burton that others can't?
Richard Childress, owner of Burton's No. 31 Chevrolet: Todd is an aggressive, hard-working crew chief. He's really smart, and I think they just kind of jelled right off. I felt that if they ever got together, they would be a very strong pairing. Now that they're together, I think we've got some really good things coming this year. We were kind of watching to see what happened with the Jack Daniels-Casey (Mears) deal, and once it didn't go through, Todd (who was Mears' crew chief) was our No. 1 choice. It's going to be successful, and it's going to be a strong team.
Where he's better than Jimmie Johnson: Las Vegas, Texas.
Where he'll struggle: Atlanta, Daytona, California, Indianapolis, Martinsville, Watkins Glen.
Why there's hope: The late-season pairing of Burton and Berrier produced runner-up finishes in the final two Cup races.
Time to mope: Burton typically falls behind early in the season. The venues for the first two races--Daytona and California--are two of his worst tracks.
Darrell Waltrip says: "Burton has two problems: One, he's going to be another year older (43 in June); two, he can't qualify. That's his Achilles' heel. If he can improve his qualifying, he can improve his performance and his chances of winning."
11. Greg Biffle, No. 16 Ford
At age 40, does Biffle still have a shot at becoming the first driver to win titles in all three of NASCAR's national touring series?
Buddy Baker, winner of 19 Cup races: Heck, yes. We're talking about a wheel man. We're talking about one of the best car-control guys in our sport. Greg Biffle being 40--that's usually when a driver is smart enough and has the capability to do about anything he wants to on the racetrack, if he has the team to take him there. But I'll tell you this: Somebody has got to beat Jimmie Johnson before anybody can win the championship. I think Biffle has the ability, but does he have a car better than Jimmie Johnson's and a crew chief better than Jimmie Johnson's?
Where he's better than Jimmie Johnson: Homestead, Michigan.
Where he'll struggle: Chicago, Indianapolis, Martinsville, Talladega.
Why there's hope: Biffle is a hard charger who benefits from one of the fastest crews on pit road. With the new Ford engine under his hood, he won't lack for power.
Time to mope: Biffle must become more consistent. There are tracks in the Chase--such as Martinsville--that continue to baffle him.
Darrell Waltrip says: "You know one thing about Greg. He's not holding back anything, and that gets him in trouble. I think he needs to take his cars and take his on-track performance and, a lot of weekends, just back it down a little bit and stay out of trouble."
12. Ryan Newman, No. 39 Chevrolet
Will we ever see the days of the Rocket Man again dominating qualifying?
Junior Johnson, member of the first Hall of Fame class and 10th in career Cup poles, one spot ahead of Newman: Race teams work on stuff like that, and occasionally one of them will hit the combination it takes to do stuff like that. And they'll dominate for half of a season, but then other people will catch up. It's always been that you get a little break somewhere along the way and you find something that works better than the other guy and you can dominate it for a certain time. Nobody's going to dominate forever in that stuff, but I would consider Ryan Newman to be one of the top qualifiers I've ever seen.
Where he's better than Jimmie Johnson: Infineon.
Where he'll struggle: Atlanta, California, Homestead, Phoenix, Texas.
Why there's hope: In his first year with Stewart-Haas Racing, Newman recovered from a horrendous start to make the Chase. He'll benefit from offseason upgrades to his crew.
Time to mope: The 2008 Daytona 500 gave Newman his only win since 2005. Frequent trips to victory lane are requisite for a Cup championship.
Darrell Waltrip says: "I think that team could go either way. The thing they've got to work on is performance. Ryan needs to get his car to run as good as Tony (Stewart's) did if he's going to make the Chase again."
13. Clint Bowyer, No. 33 Chevrolet
Why there's hope: Increased stability and streamlining at Richard Childress Racing, which contracted from four teams to three, will benefit Bowyer.
Time to mope: To contend for a title, Bowyer must finish high consistently. He has more than one top five on only four Cup tracks.
Keys to the season: "It's so important to get out of Daytona with the season started on the right foot. Daytona has been good to me in the past. I'm looking forward to it." -- Clint Bowyer
14. Marcos Ambrose, No. 47 Toyota
Why there's hope: Ambrose's prowess on the road courses energizes his entire team. He also has adapted well to short ovals and restrictor- plate speedways.
Time to mope: He must improve on the intermediate speedways that comprise a large portion of the Cup schedule.
Keys to the season: "He's about 15 pounds lighter than (last season)--in better shape. ... We're going to be better than we were last year. I think you're going to see that right out of the box." -- Crew chief Frank Kerr
15. Kasey Kahne, No. 9 Ford
Why there's hope: Kahne is an undeniable talent, and a switch to Ford can give him the horsepower he needs to excel.
Time to mope: Lack of direction at Richard Petty Motorsports has made Kahne fractious at times, and there's a strong possibility he'll jump ship at the end of the season.
Keys to the season: "We changed some things around with Yates and Ford and Richard Petty Motorsports, so it's been a pretty crazy offseason. ... We'll have a better engine package, and having a larger group of people should benefit everybody at RPM." -- Kasey Kahne
16. Brian Vickers, No. 83 Toyota
Why there's hope: Vickers is a formidable qualifier, and his six poles last season were second only to Mark Martin's seven.
Time to mope: Vickers and his team expended so much energy making the Chase last year they had nothing left when they got there. A strong start to 2010 is a must.
Keys to the season: "We're going to have to learn how to deal with being in the Chase and perform better in the Chase to make a run for the championship." -- Brian Vickers
17. Kurt Busch, No. 2 Dodge
Why there's hope: He enjoyed a stellar season in 2009, even after crew chief Pat Tryson announced his impending departure.
Time to mope: It will take time for Busch and new crew chief Steve Addington to click, and Penske Racing is now the only organization running Dodges.
Keys to the season: "We have to build that chemistry between driver and crew chief. The good part about the way the Chase is set up is that we have 26 races in the regular season." -- Kurt Busch
18. David Reutimann, No. 00 Toyota
Why there's hope: Reutimann was a surprise contender for the Chase last year, and owner Michael Waltrip continues to strengthen his organization with key hires.
Time to mope: Reutimann is lost on road courses.
Keys to the season: "I feel like we just need to be more consistent in what we do. Some of the stuff we tried (in 2009) just didn't work." -- David Reutimann
19. Kevin Harvick, No. 29 Chevrolet
Why there's hope: Harvick took advantage of improved handling by posting two top fives in the final three races of 2009.
Time to mope: There's an uneasy truce between Harvick and team owner Richard Childress after considerable friction last year. Odds are Harvick will leave after his contract expires at the end of the season.
Keys to the season: "The end of the season proved (RCR) is headed in the right direction. As a team, we had several opportunities to win several of the last few races. They had speed back in the cars." -- Kevin Harvick
20. Dale Earnhardt Jr., No. 88 Chevrolet
Why there's hope: Earnhardt is driving the best equipment in the Cup garage, and, lest we forget, he has won 18 races.
Time to mope: Earnhardt hasn't won since June 2008, and his confidence has suffered.
Keys to the season: "We swapped some people around with (Mark Martin's) No. 5 car to try to bridge that gap between the two teams, get them working together a little bit better." -- Dale Earnhardt Jr.
21. Brad Keselowski, No. 12 Dodge
Why there's hope: Keselowski won at Talladega in his fifth Cup start and added four Nationwide wins last year before joining Penske Racing.
Time to mope: Trying to run a full Nationwide Series schedule during his first full season of Cup racing may take its toll.
Keys to the season: "It's a large workload, but I feel like it's worth it. I'm 100 percent convinced it's the right thing for me to do. Maybe in June or July, when I've got major jet lag, I won't have that same opinion." -- Brad Keselowski
22. Martin Truex Jr., No. 56 Toyota
Why there's hope: With his move to Michael Waltrip Racing, Truex no longer has to play second fiddle to Juan Pablo Montoya.
Time to mope: Truex, who fell to 23rd in points last year after making the Chase in 2007, faces a major adjustment with a new team, crew chief, sponsor and manufacturer.
Keys to the season: "We tested in Atlanta (in mid-January), and things went really well, better than I could have imagined. I think it's going to be an easier transition than I thought." -- Martin Truex Jr.
23. Joey Logano, No. 20 Toyota
Why there's hope: Logano showed vast improvement during his first full Cup season, and crew chief Greg Zipadelli is an excellent mentor.
Time to mope: Don't be fooled by the opportunistic win last year at New Hampshire. Logano is still behind the curve on flat tracks.
Keys to the season: "When you're racing against the best racecar drivers in the world, you've got to work really hard to find every little bit you can to make yourself better. The hardest thing is just getting used to the new Cup car." -- Joey Logano
24. David Ragan, No. 6 Ford
Why there's hope: In the midst of a nightmarish sophomore Cup season, Ragan won two Nationwide races. He hasn't forgotten how to drive.
Time to mope: No one suffered more from Roush Fenway's handling problems last year than Ragan. Now, he'll have to adjust to new crew chief Donnie Wingo and spotter Loren Ranier.
Keys to the season: "None of us ran as good as we did the year before. I know that (general manager) Robbie (Reiser) and (owner) Jack (Roush) have worked really hard this winter to get him the best of everything." -- Roush Fenway teammate Matt Kenseth
25. Jamie McMurray, No. 1 Chevrolet
Why there's hope: McMurray seems comfortable in his reunion with owner Chip Ganassi, and crew chief Bono Manion is an asset.
Time to mope: McMurray's November win at Talladega was his only top five of the season, and he totaled five top 10s in 36 races.
Keys to the season: "Getting off to a solid start is so important. It sets the tone for the whole year. You have to go into the season with the goals of making the Chase and being able to win races." -- Jamie McMurray
26. AJ Allmendinger, No. 43 Ford
Why there's hope: Quick and aggressive, Allmendinger should benefit from Ford power this season. He's willing to push a car to the full extent of its capabilities.
Time to mope: RPM hasn't been the most stable entity in the garage, and there's a danger of the organization--with the exception of Kasey Kahne--becoming a test team for Roush Fenway.
27. Sam Hornish, No. 77 Dodge
Why there's hope: Hornish has shown steady, if not spectacular, improvement since joining the Cup Series full time in 2008. He posted seven top 10s in 2009 after going without one in his rookie season.
Time to mope: Hornish still isn't fast enough on intermediate speedways. None of his seven top 10s came on 1.5-milers, and the Cup Series is heavy on those types of tracks.
28. Paul Menard, No. 98 Ford
Why there's hope: New crew chief Slugger Labbe is a magician when it comes to setting up a car, and Menard is a hard charger when he feels comfortable behind the wheel.
Time to mope: After joining Yates Racing, Menard regressed from 26th in points with DEI in 2008 to 31st in 2009. He didn't finish in the top 10 in a single race last season.
29. Regan Smith, No. 78 Chevrolet
Why there's hope: Smith can be aggressive behind the wheel and still keep his cool, a valuable juxtaposition. He's at his best on restrictor-plate tracks.
Time to mope: Running a full schedule in 2010, after driving in 18 races last year, might stretch Furniture Row's capacity to put a competitive car on the track.
30. Elliott Sadler, No. 19 Ford
Why there's hope: RPM's switch to Ford, the brand in which Sadler posted all three of his Cup wins, will improve his team's performance.
Time to mope: The question lingers as to whether Sadler can go all out for a team that tried unsuccessfully to dump him before the 2009 season.
31. Bobby Labonte, No. 71 Chevrolet
Why there's hope: The 2000 Cup champion hasn't forgotten how to drive, and he'll have a past champion's provisional as a fallback if he has trouble during qualifying.
Time to mope: Labonte hasn't adapted to NASCAR's new car as quickly as he would have liked, and owner Kevin Buckler still has big sponsorship gaps to fill.
32. Travis Kvapil, No. 34 Ford
Why there's hope: Kvapil's team will benefit from the expansion of Ford's presence in Cup racing. The former truck series champ is a fearless driver.
Time to mope: Kvapil is joining a Front Row Motorsports organization that last year failed to post a top 10 finish in 49 starts.
33. Scott Speed, No. 82 Toyota
Why there's hope: True to his name, Speed is undeniably quick in qualifying, having started from the top 10 seven times in 2009.
Time to mope: Speed seldom finishes as well as he starts, and he has to take better care of his equipment. He crashed out of six races last year.
34. Aric Almirola, No. 09 Chevrolet
Why there's hope: Almirola will get a chance to showcase his talent with owner James Finch, and the team will benefit from its access to Earnhardt-Childress engines.
Time to mope: Almirola's career has been sidetracked by lack of sponsorship. In three Cup seasons, he has never started more than 12 races, and lack of solid backing could be an issue again this year.
35. Kevin Conway, No. 37 Ford
Why there's hope: Conway will try to make the most of his first full season in any of NASCAR's top three touring series.
Time to mope: There's genuine concern that Conway isn't ready for the Cup Series, but money talks, and sponsor ExtenZe is footing the bill for a giant step up in class.
36. Mike Bliss, No. 36 Toyota
Why there's hope: Bliss was consistently fast in the Nationwide Series last season, winning a race at Charlotte before losing his ride in Finch's No. 1 Chevy.
Time to mope: Tommy Baldwin Racing was a start-and-park operation in 2009, and Bliss will have to qualify for the all-important Daytona 500 in his Duel race Thursday.
37. David Gilliland, No. 38 Ford
Why there's hope: Gilliland is a former Daytona 500 pole winner. If his car has speed, Gilliland's not reluctant to push it. He's an adept road-course racer.
Time to mope: Gilliland doesn't have a single full-time ride for all 36 races. In fact, he's entered in the Daytona 500 in BAM Racing's No. 49 Toyota. After that, he'll move to his regular ride in Front Row Motorsports' No. 38 Ford.
38. Joe Nemechek, No. 87 Toyota
Why there's hope: Front Row Joe is still an excellent qualifier, a requisite for a start-and-park team. Last year, Nemechek made the show in 30 of his 34 attempts.
Time to mope: Nemechek wants to run full schedules in Cup and Nationwide, and sponsorship remains an issue.
39. Robby Gordon, No. 7 Toyota
Why there's hope: There's not a driver in the Cup garage who pushes harder, and Gordon is always a threat to win on a road course.
Time to mope: The loss of Jim Beam, one of his strongest primary sponsors, has put a crimp in this owner-driver's ability to run a full schedule.
40. Bill Elliott, No. 21 Ford
Why there's hope: The Wood Brothers Ford, under the direction of crew chief David Hyder, was consistently strong with Elliott running 12 races last year. Elliott is still a formidable qualifier.
Time to mope: If Elliott hopes to improve on his 23.9 average finish in 2009, he'll need a crew that can hold its own on pit road.
-- Additional reporting by Matt Crossman, Bill Eichenberger, Roger Kuznia and Ken Bradley.
