MILWAUKEE -- There is no debate that the Milwaukee Brewers need starting pitching. There is no disagreement that Prince Fielder is the most valuable commodity among the pieces they'd be willing to move.
And there is no question that Fielder intends to become a free agent after the 2011 season.
So, yes, the Brewers should avoid delaying the inevitable by trading Fielder as soon as a sensible opportunity presented itself. For example, on the off chance a pitching-rich team like Boston would be willing to give up a presentable starter, you do that and you do it now.
But just because the drumbeats for moving Fielder keep getting louder as his arbitration bonanza nears doesn't necessarily mean the short-term rationalizations have grown any simpler.
Sure, the Brewers could move just about anyone to first base. But who protects Ryan Braun in the lineup? Even with his power reduction last year, Fielder still hit 34 homers and drove in 102 runs. Even if he received $8 million or so in his impending arbitration hearing, that's value the Brewers could not replace.
ADVERTISEMENT
Yet in any high-stakes hypothetical, a tipping point is the fear of trading a player too late for return purposes against the risk of losing his production too soon. In Fielder's case, there are issues that should cause the Brewers to err on the side of the latter.
Fielder could surprise everyone next month by showing up fit at Maryvale Baseball Park. But if he cannot control his weight, he would restrict the Brewers' eventual trading partners to the American League.
Certainly, the Brewers could retain Fielder's production with relative cost containment for the next three seasons, but only against the certainty that he could maintain a body type that became a point of concern last year. So far, that hasn't happened.
And by his words in spring training last year and his choice of the hardest of hard-line agents, a bottom-line rep who would not abide a client in a smallish market, Fielder has not presented himself as someone who intends to stay after he becomes a free agent.
There's also the question of what the Brewers will need more this year to help them make another playoff run in a division that hasn't done a lot to upgrade itself during the offseason. They got their closer, and chances are that Trevor Hoffman will hold up throughout the year. But how much would that help them if there aren't enough save opportunities to justify his presence?
Starting pitching is vital for everyone, but it is especially crucial for a team that lost CC Sabathia and is willing to accept draft picks for Ben Sheets. Enough remains in the rotation to make a case that the Brewers are still the primary irritant to the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central, but such an argument requires certain leaps of faith.
Yovani Gallardo has to remain healthy. Manny Parra has to get it back. After his arbitration check arrives, Dave Bush has to prove he is the pitcher who won Game 3 of the NLDS, not the guy who was demoted to Nashville. Jeff Suppan must show he's not the first Jeffrey Hammonds of the Mark Attanasio/Doug Melvin era. Chris Capuano, well, that's a stretch.
How the Brewers upgrade the staff on an $80 million budget is the question. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking toward Fielder's free agency as the Brewers' need for starting pitching doesn't go away. Should those concerns intersect in a reasonable way anytime soon, the benefits of a trade could exceed the downside for all concerned.
ADVERTISEMENT
-- Copyright (c) 2009, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services
